The offseason is swiftly approaching, meaning it’s almost time for the second round of David Stearns and company’s rebuilding efforts in Milwaukee. The Brewers never looked like a playoff team by any means in 2016, but the fact that they improved upon their 2015 performance by five games despite all the talent that was jettisoned in that span is a good sign that things are moving in the right direction.
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I don’t think anybody will be predicting a playoff appearance for Milwaukee in 2017. The Cubs will be dominant favorites in the National League Central, the Cardinals are never down and out for long, and enough teams have talent on hand across the league that the Brewers will be given only an outside shot of sneaking into the second Wild Card. As such, many will probably expect another quiet free agency period for the Brewers like last season, when they picked up cheap options like Chris Carter but stayed away from any of the big money players.
That said, the Brewers have a lot of flexibility in this year’s free agent market. Thanks to the ground clearing trades Stearns has engineered over the last year, the Brewers only have two players under contract for 2017: Ryan Braun and Matt Garza, for a combined $32,500,000. They also have only eight players who will be subject to salary arbitration for 2017, all of whom are still in the first or second year of the process. MLB Trade Rumors recently released its arbitration projections for 2017, and aside from Carter, none of Milwaukee’s arbitration-eligible players will be breaking the bank:
| Arbitration-Eligible Brewers (2016 OD Service) | Estimated 2017 Salary |
|---|---|
| Chris Carter 4.159) | $8.1MM |
| Martin Maldonado (4.156) | $1.6MM |
| Carlos Torres (4.114) | $2.0MM |
| Wily Peralta (3.160) | $4.4MM |
| Kirk Nieuwenhuis (3.112) | $1.6MM |
| Scooter Gennett (3.071) | $3.0MM |
| Tyler Thornburg (3.057) | $2.2MM |
| Chase Anderson (2.146) | $3.1MM |
The total projection comes out to $26 million. Add to that the money due to Braun and Garza as well as the approximate cash necessary to fill out the roster with 15 minimum salary players at $500,000 apiece and the Brewers have approximately $66 million committed to their payroll in 2017. Considering the Brewers won’t necessarily tender contracts to Carlos Torres or Wily Peralta, and the trade rumors continue to swirl around Ryan Braun, that number could be even lower come the hot stove season.
2016 saw the Brewers slash $40 million off their payroll, dipping from $104 million in 2015 to $63 million in 2016, lowest in the major leagues. There is no reason for the Brewers to remain in the payoroll basement considering Milwaukee’s remarkably consistent attendance totals — the club drew over 2 million fans once again despite a second straight losing season. The club has been more than capable of sustaining salaries over $80 million over the past decade. Even without a recent playoff appearance, the team is still getting substantial support from the community, and quite frankly, there’s no excuse for this team to have a lower payroll than the Tampa Bay Rays, who drew just 1.3 million fans last year in their dump of a stadium.
As such, should the right deal make itself available, the Brewers shouldn’t be afraid to make a splash in free agency. Of course, finding that right deal is critical. Most free agent deals are made with an understanding that the first year or two will be the ones worth the money, with the end of the deal left as a crapshoot at best thanks to aging, injuries, and inevitable decline. If the Brewers make a play in free agency in 2017, it will be with an eye turned towards 2018 or 2019. That means they would be best served negotiating with the few free agents in their twenties, perhaps a young player who has yet to live up to expectations but could play the role of post-hype sleeper.
Pickings are slim, but names like Brett Anderson (28 years old) and Jeremy Hellickson (29 years old) could be intriguing additions to the pitching staff. Wilson Ramos is the rare catcher in his 20s to enter free agency. Trevor Cahill has reinvented himself as a solid reliever with the Cubs. Neftali Feliz once had elite closer potential and is just 28. Carlos Gomez looked much more like his old self with the Rangers after scuffling with the Astros, and he still has many fans in Milwaukee and is just 30 years old.
The Brewers may choose to wait another year to make a big splash, or perhaps they’ll use their increasingly robust farm system to acquire major league talent instead. Either approach would be understandable. But the Brewers have all the financial flexibility they could hope for heading into 2017, and they’ll have the option to be aggressors on the free agent market if they want to. Even in what looks like a relatively weak free agent class, there are a few intriguing options, and hopefully David Stearns, Mark Attanasio and company are keeping their minds open.