Tl;dr: Sloppy defensive play in the bottom of the third inning led to four unearned runs which Milwaukee could not overcome as the Reds beat the Brewers 6-4.
Top Play (WPA):
Adam Duvall’s two run double with the bases loaded in the third inning put the Reds ahead 4-2 (.167). Garza actually did a good job pitching to Duvall. He kept his pitches low, and according to Brooks Baseball, out of the zone. Unfortunately, Duvall was able to reach down and pull the ball into left field. After Cincinnati took the lead here, they did not relinquish it.
Bottom Play (WPA):
The bottom play of the game also occurred in the bottom of the third inning when Jose Peraza struck out with no outs and runners on 1st and 2nd base. However, since I’m dissecting that inning below, and mentioned it in both of the above sections, I’ll look at the second worst play of the game… also featuring Jose Peraza! Peraza led off the game with a single. He attempted to steal on a 2-1 count and was thrown out by Martin Maldonaldo (-.057). The out became even more important when Joey Votto hit a home run later that inning to put the Reds up 1-0.
Defensive Miscues Lead to Four Unearned Runs
So about that third inning… Garza once again pitched a competent game and certainly gave the Brewers a chance to win. However, in the third inning he was let down by his defense and some luck on swings on good pitches.
Tucker Barnhart led off and his defensive swing produced a weak grounder to the first base area. Jonathan Villar, Garza and Chris Carter all looked at it awkwardly before Villar makes a play. However, he underhanded the ball right into Carter’s stomach, and Carter couldn’t catch it cleanly. Runner on first, no outs.
Next Dan Straily comes to the plate. He was 0-43 coming into the game and was only looking to bunt Barnhart over. On the third pitch, he bunts and Hernan Perez was all over it. Perez actually fielded it on the first base side of the mound. But in his haste to get Barnhart at 2nd base, he threw without setting and the ball went into center field. The throw bounced before the bag and actually went between Arcia’s leg and glove. There was a chance for Arcia to grab the throw, but he couldn’t react in time. Runners on first and second, no outs, and two sloppy errors.
Garza then struck out Peraza on four pitches after he also tried to bunt the runners over. Runners on first and second, one out.
Next, Eugenio Suarez was hit by a pitch. Garza had him 1-2 in the at bat and hitting Suarez would qualify as his first mistake of the inning, though it unfortunately loaded the bases. A case could also be made that Suarez put his elbow into the path of the ball, but that’s never called, so the bases were loaded with one out.
At this point, Milwaukee was still up 2-1, but Votto was up and came through with a single. As with the pitch to Duvall, it was low and out of the strike zone, but Votto was able to pull it for a run scoring single to tie the game.
To bring it home, looking at Garza’s pitch chart in the third, those two light blue dots outside of the zone are the Votto and Duvall hits, which accounted for 3 runs in the inning:
The last out involved more shenanigans. Brandon Phillips hit a sac fly to right center, where Kirk Nieuwenhuis collided with Keon Broxton as Broxton made the catch. Votto scored easily. Duvall got greedy and tried to capitalize on the confusion to score from second, but was thrown out at the plate for an unlikely double play. Four unearned runs and the Brewers were down for good.
Villar Hits Another Home Run
While Jonathan Villar set his career high in home runs a few weeks ago, he’s still crushing the ball and has seen his slugging rise dramatically in August and September. Entering August, he was slugging .434. In August he was .466 and in September an absurd .629. One cause of the power barrage, he’s now hitting the ball much harder than earlier in the year.
The chart shows the general uptick in fastballs and offspeed, but it’s breaking balls where Villar has taken off. Right now, when he makes contact with a breaking pitch, it’s smoked. He’s also missing less often, whiffing on only 8.33 percent of breaking pitches. Pitchers will adjust next season, and we’ll need to see if Villar can make that next adjustment, but the power surge has been fun to watch.
Up Next:
The series concludes tonight at 6:10PM as the Brewers look to avoid the sweep, and Cincinnati goes for their sixth straight win, which would be their longest streak of the season. Junior Guerra starts for the Brewers. This will be his third start since returning from an elbow inflammation injury. In his previous two starts, he’s pitched 8.3 combined innings and allowed 11 hits and two walks while striking out 5. Taking the mound for Cincinnati is Tim Adleman. In his last start against Pittsburgh, Adlemen went 6 innings, striking out none, but only allowing two runs on seven hits and two walks.