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Aging Ryan Braun

There are two common assumptions about Ryan Braun that fans and analysts use to justify trading the face of the franchise:

(1) Ryan Braun has faced an injury-riddled set of years as he has aged.
(2) Ryan Braun will face an aging curve that diminishes his performance.

Point (1) has been a common line on Braun over the last few years, as concerns about everything from obliques to thumbs to his back surface. Yet, despite all of these injury concerns, Braun has progressively improved from his .278 TAv in 2014 to .298 in 2015 and .316 in 2016, all the while logging between 560 and 580 plate appearances (or 135-140 games, if you prefer). In 2016, Milwaukee demonstrated that they have a proactive plan for resting Braun, which will look like an even more lucrative strategy in 2017 and 2018 when the club needs to sort through several depth outfielders that will need to establish MLB roles from their current prospect status. For all intents and purposes, the injuries are a non-starer: the best way to dismiss such a concern is to not only play a lot after those concerns, but to improve performance as well. Braun has done both.


Point (2) is much trickier because it wades into that wonderful future of baseball uncertainties. One of the problems with the aging curve assumption is that Braun is already an elite player. According to Baseball Reference, his career bWAR places him 400th all time, meaning that Braun resides comfortably within the top 3 percent of all players to have ever played in the MLB since 1876. According to bWAR Braun is also one of the Top 30 most valuable players, among active players. Even on a seasonal basis, his 3.90 WARP in 2016 places him in the Top 50 among all MLB bats. Most statistical assumptions place Braun among elite company.

So, the obvious issue is, given that Braun is an elite player with one of the best bats in the MLB, how should fans expect the left fielder to age? This is not necessarily to criticize outright the concept of an aging curve, because in general it is worth understanding how baseball players progress as they get older. However, it is worth considering that if Braun is an exception to some aspects of the game, he may be expected to age on a different curve than some of his peers. Even reaching an age-32 season is quite a feat, let alone at Braun’s production level; some very good players, like Mark Teixeira, decline relatively quickly while also facing devastating injuries.


 

Not surprisingly, Braun’s age-32 campaign has some interesting company. Judging players that are 32-or-older while producing 3.80 WARP or better, over the last decade (2007-2016) sixty distinct players are comparable to Braun. Those sixty players have produced 3.80 WARP (or better) during or after their age 32 seasons 95 times, with repeat seasons coming from Adrian Beltre (5), Chipper Jones (5), Alex Rodriguez (3), Lance Berkman (3), Manny Ramirez (3), Jim Thome (3), Ichiro (3), Jason Varitek (3), Nelson Cruz (3), Carlos Delgado (3), Ben Zobrist (2), Jhonny Peralta (2), Adrian Gonzalez (2), Jose Bautista (2), Miguel Cabrera (2), Marlon Byrd (2), Jimmy Rollins (2), Mike Lowell (2), Marco Scutaro (2), Miguel Tejada (2) and Jayson Werth (2).

By my count, 56 age-32+ / 3.80 WARP+ seasons are owned by only 21 players, meaning that two thirds of the players that reach this status are one-off players. However, one should not dismiss this other group of players as flukes; Vladimir Guerrero, Todd Helton, Scott Rolen, Hideki Matsui, Chase Utley (thus far), Matt Holliday (thus far), and Albert Pujols (thus far) are just a few of the players that produced 3.80+ WARP just once at age-32 (or older). So it is absolutely worth stating that if Braun fails to reach this level of production again, he will join very good company of elite players who did not necessarily age well.


 

It is worth listing these players to see how they performed in their early-to-late 30s, regardless of whether they consistently reached a 3.80 WARP plateau, or performed at another level. For this reason, I am using “median” WARP for pre-32 and 32-and-after seasons, in order to capture each player’s “middle” performance value (because it should be worth stating that players fluctuate in value all the time, so a median number may provide a more meaningful judgment of value that “total” WARP). [By assumption, this removes the impact of one truly great year from a player’s record, in the hopes of comparing a more likely career performance.]

For this analysis, I focused on the first half of the last decade, since most players that were 32-or-older between 2007 and 2011 have already resolved their careers; I do not want to prematurely judge current aging players, because their current career arcs are less certain. One year absolutely can make a difference in this type of judgment.

First, I ranked players by the age at which they “bottomed out” (for which I tried to use a generally “replacement level” year, or the player’s last season barring that):

32+ 3.80 WARP Years (Age) Other 32+ / 3.80 WARP Pre-32 WARP Median Post-32 WARP Median Bottomed Out (WARP)
2009 Derrek Lee (33) None 2.10 2.15 [Age 30 (0.6)] Age 35 (-0.3)
2010 Aubrey Huff (33) None 1.4 0.3 [Age 32 (-1.7)] Age 35 (0.1)
2010 Paul Konerko (34) None 0.85 1.7 [Age 32 (-0.2)] Age 37 (-1.0)
2007 Magglio Ordonez (33) None 2.50 0.75 Age 34 (0.2)
2007 Vladimir Guerrero (32) None 5.80 1.10 Age 34 (0.6)
2007 Todd Helton (33) None 5.00 1.30 [Age 34 (0.4) / Age 36 (0.1)]
2007 Jim Thome (36) ’03 / ’06 3.85 2.50 [Age 34 (-0.2) / Age 38 (1.0)]
2007 Hideki Matsui (33) None 4.50 1.40 [Age 34 (0.9) / Age 38 (-1.10)]
2007 Brad Ausmus (38) None 1.95 2.25 [Age 34 (-0.3) ] Age 39 (0.3)
2010 Andres Torres (32) None -0.1 1.5 Age 35 (0.2)
2007 Mike Lowell (33) ’06 2.20 2.10 Age 35 (1.0)
2008 Carlos Delgado (36) ’05 2.60 3.00 [Age 35 (0.2)] Age 37 (0.8)
2007 Jason Varitek (35) ’04 / ’05 3.30 1.15 Age 36 (-0.5)
2010 Rafael Furcal (32) None 4.0 2.0 Age 36 (-0.2)
2008 Randy Winn (34) None 1.30 2.30 Age 36 (-0.1)
2011 Lance Berkman (35) ’08 / ‘09 4.60 2.65 Age 36 (0.5)
2010 Scott Rolen (35) None 5.60 2.55 Age 36 (0.8)
2010 Alex Rodriguez (34) ’08 / ’09 6.65 2.80 [Age 37 (0.7) / Age 40 (-1.2)
2008 Mark DeRosa (33) None 0.7 0.8 Age 37 (-0.5)
2009 Ichiro (35) ’06 / ’07 / ‘08 4.8 1.1 Age 37 (-0.4)
2009 Casey Blake (35) None 0.1 2.65 Age 37 (0.3)
2009 Marco Scutaro (33) ’08 0.5 2.3 Age 38 (-0.2)
2009 Miguel Tejada ‘06 4.5 1.7 Age 39 (0.1) [DNP age 38]
2008 Manny Ramirez (36) ’05 / ’06 5.30 3.35 Age 39 (-0.3)
2008 Raul Ibanez (36) None 0.05 2.50 Age 39 (0.6)
2007 Chipper Jones (35) ’04 / ’05 / ’06 / ’08 4.30 3.80 Age 39 (1.40)

There are so many interesting individual careers to dive into here. A number of elite players simply fell off after their age-32 campaigns (or so), and simply could not maintain even average levels of production.

  • Perhaps more worthwhile to scrutinize for the Ryan Braun case are players like Lance Berkman and Rafael Furcal, who were replacement level players by age 36, but quite productive between ages 32-35 (2.65 and 2.00 median WARP age 32+, respectively).
  • Obviously, Chipper Jones is the “best case” comp in terms of median WARP prior to age 32 (4.30, compared to 4.10 for Ryan Braun), since Jones produced five seasons at 3.80 WARP level (or better) from age 32 onward.
  • It is worth stating that based on some WARP valuations, if Braun follows a Matt Holliday-type progression, he will deliver at least 80 percent of his contract extension value, rendering financial considerations moot even without “best case” aging scenarios.
  • Notably, even some players that seemingly “dropped off” at age 34 or so bounced back for one (or more) useful or productive seasons before the end of their respective careers. Carlos Delgado, Hideki Matsui, Todd Helton, and even perhaps Paul Konerko are instructive here (although it is worth mentioning that Braun’s median performance prior to age-32 is better than most of these players). The tricky question is how strict one should be when judging post-32 performance against pre-32 performance.

Ranked by median WARP prior to age 32, one can assess different aging patterns according to relative production value:

32+ 3.80 WARP Years (Age) Other 32+ / 3.80 WARP Pre-32 WARP Median Post-32 WARP Median Bottomed Out (WARP)
32+ 3.80 WARP Years (Age) Other 32+ / 3.80 WARP Pre-32 WARP Median Post-32 WARP Median Bottomed Out (WARP)
2010 Alex Rodriguez (34) ’08 / ’09 6.65 2.80 [Age 37 (0.7) / Age 40 (-1.2)
2007 Vladimir Guerrero (32) None 5.80 1.10 Age 34 (0.6)
2010 Scott Rolen (35) None 5.60 2.55 Age 36 (0.8)
2008 Manny Ramirez (36) ’05 / ’06 5.30 3.35 Age 39 (-0.3)
2007 Todd Helton (33) None 5.00 1.30 [Age 34 (0.4) / Age 36 (0.1)
Five 5.0+ WARP players 1.8 3.80+ yrs 5.60 2.55 36.57
2009 Ichiro (35) ’06 / ’07 / ‘08 4.8 1.1 Age 37 (-0.4)
2011 Lance Berkman (35) ’08 / ‘09 4.60 2.65 Age 36 (0.5)
2009 Miguel Tejada ‘06 4.5 1.7 Age 39 (0.1) [DNP age 38]
2007 Hideki Matsui (33) None 4.50 1.40 [Age 34 (0.9) / Age 38 (-1.10)]
2007 Chipper Jones (35) ’04 / ’05 / ’06 / ’08 4.30 3.80 Age 39 (1.40)
2010 Rafael Furcal (32) None 4.0 2.0 Age 36 (-0.2)
Six 4.0 to 4.99 WARP 2.67 3.80+ yrs 4.50 2.37 37.125
2007 Jim Thome (36) ’03 / ’06 3.85 2.50 [Age 34 (-0.2) / Age 38 (1.0)]
2007 Jason Varitek (35) ’04 / ’05 3.30 1.15 Age 36 (-0.5)
2008 Carlos Delgado (36) ’05 2.60 3.00 [Age 35 (0.2)] Age 37 (0.8)
2007 Magglio Ordonez (33) None 2.50 0.75 Age 34 (0.2)
2007 Mike Lowell (33) ’06 2.20 2.10 Age 35 (1.0)
2009 Derrek Lee (33) None 2.10 2.15 [Age 30 (0.6)] Age 35 (-0.3)
2007 Brad Ausmus (38) None 1.95 2.25 [Age 34 (-0.3) ] Age 39 (0.3)
2010 Aubrey Huff (33) None 1.4 0.3 [Age 32 (-1.7)] Age 35 (0.1)
2008 Randy Winn (34) None 1.30 2.30 Age 36 (-0.1)
Nine 1.00 to 3.99 WARP 1.67 3.80+ yrs 2.20 2.25 35.0
2010 Paul Konerko (34) None 0.85 1.7 [Age 32 (-0.2)] Age 37 (-1.0)
2008 Mark DeRosa (33) None 0.7 0.8 Age 37 (-0.5)
2009 Marco Scutaro (33) ’08 0.5 2.3 Age 38 (-0.2)
2009 Casey Blake (35) None 0.1 2.65 Age 37 (0.3)
2008 Raul Ibanez (36) None 0.05 2.50 Age 39 (0.6)
2010 Andres Torres (32) None -0.1 1.5 Age 35 (0.2)
Six Below 0.99 WARP 1.17 3.80+ yrs 0.3 2.00 36.43

Extracting the specific WARP categories, one can easily compare the aging trends and “bottomed out” age:

32+ 3.80 WARP Years (Age) 32+ / 3.80 WARP Pre-32 WARP Median Post-32 WARP Median Bottomed Out Age
Five 5.0+ WARP players 1.8yrs 5.60 2.55 36.57
Six 4.0 to 4.9 WARP 2.67yrs 4.50 2.37 37.125
Nine 1.00 to 3.9 WARP 1.67yrs 2.20 2.25 35.0
Six Below 0.99 WARP 1.17yrs 0.3 2.00 36.43
  • Perhaps unsurprisingly, the players with the best median WARP prior to age 32 also had the best median WARP after age 32;
  • Although here the scale changed considerably — instead of comparing a 4.55 WARP or 0.78 WARP player, now one is comparing a player with a range between 2.00 and 2.60 WARP (which is basically a negligible difference, in all honesty).
  • What is most interesting is that the players with the lowest median WARP prior to age 32 improved their median performance while sticking around to produce a 3.80 WARP campaign at (or after) their age-32 season. These players are largely depth guys that may have figured things out as they aged, while being afforded opportunities to figure things out because of their bench or depth roles — quite a different, and more clandestine, career arc than the star prospect who gets the spotlight and is scrutinized much more (thereby forcing decline to be more readily noticed, as well).
  • It is also interesting to note that the players in the 4.0 to 4.99 WARP range did not “fall off” as fast as the 5.0+ WARP group, allowing that group of players to average nearly three 3.80+ WARP seasons at (and after) age 32 (although Chipper Jones and Ichiro definitely inflate that average).
  • In general, it is fascinating to see how aging throughout a player’s 30s equalized different performance levels. Brewers analysts should keep this in mind while assessing other aging players on Milwaukee’s roster (once the front office faces that issue again).

Although many of the age-32+, 3.80+ WARP players from 2012 and 2013 have not completed their respective careers, one can see some of these trends continuing. Interestingly enough, although Albert Pujols’s decline has seemed relatively shocking, Pujols himself has produced median above-average WARP at age-32 and beyond; in this case, that gigantic contract makes his aging performance look much worse than it actually is. If Braun declines at Albert Pujols’s rate, he will deliver approximately 90 percent of his contract extension value. Matt Holliday is another elite player that has performed at a relatively above-average level at age-32 and beyond.

Recent 32+ 3.80+ WARP Age Median WARP pre-32 Since?
2013 Juan Uribe 34 1.45 1.20
2013 Coco Crisp 33 1.60 0.70
2013 Shane Victorino 32 3.20 0.20
2013 David Ortiz 37 1.50 2.80
2012 Albert Pujols 32 9.30 2.60
2012 Matt Holliday 32 5.50 2.60
2012 Dan Uggla 32 3.95 -0.25
2012 Torii Hunter 36 2.60 2.78
2012 Josh Willingham 33 2.10 2.30
2012 Carlos Ruiz 33 1.00 1.10

Following this group, 10 distinct players joined this age-32 production group in 2014, four joined in 2015, and another seven (including Braun) joined in 2016. So, at the very least, going forward analysts will have a solid set of age-32-or-older performers to judge in the coming years. While some players will not be as solid as their pre-32 versions, one might also expect many of these players to produce a median value between 2.00 and 2.55 WARP, which places additional weight on the importance of correctly predicting a player’s aging curve.


 

Stated simply, the Brewers cannot get Braun’s wager wrong, whether they decide to trade him or not. If he is going to follow the 4.00-to-4.99 WARP baseline trend of bottoming out around age 37 and producing better-than-average seasons, any potential trade return must reflect that strong aging value baseline. Correctly assuming this performance level also gives the Brewers front office a solidly average-or-better veteran to bolster a young and competitive roster.

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3 comments on “Aging Ryan Braun”

Patrick

This is such a great article. Thanks.

Nicholas Zettel

Thank you for your kind feedback!

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