The Continued Costs of Miller Park

The Turn

The Brewers continue to hang around after a strong west coast road trip. After a Tuesday night stinker by Matt Garza, the club split against St. Louis thanks to a getaway win yesterday afternoon. Milwaukee flexed their home run muscle, and Corey Knebel withstood a ninth inning rally thanks to Keon Broxton’s timely glove. Broxton made what may be the catch of the season, robbing what would have been a go-ahead home run for St. Louis. With the win secured, the Brewers remain 3.5 games behind the National League Central leading Cubs, and 3.0 games behind the National League Wild Card.

Prior to opening a season-ending stretch against nearly all NL Central opponents, the Brewers face the dominant National League East leaders, the Washington Nationals. The Nationals are on a completely different level, exhibiting equally exceptional offensive and pitching performances.

162 Game Pace Park Adjusted RS Park Adjusted RA Wins
Nationals +97 +85 99
Brewers -21 +46 82

Milwaukee will face a set of solid starters, including Max Scherzer to close the series on Sunday, meaning that the Little Rotation That Could has another clear challenge ahead of it.

Date Nationals IP DRA pWARP Brewers IP DRA pWARP
Thursday LHP Gio Gonzalez 168.7 3.55 3.8 RHP Zach Davies 156.7 4.41 2.0
Friday RHP Tanner Roark 149.7 4.26 2.2 RHP Jimmy Nelson 163.3 3.46 3.9
Saturday TBD - - - TBD [Brandon Woodruff] 16.7 5.98 -0.1
Sunday RHP Max Scherzer 167.3 2.13 6.4 RHP Matt Garza 109.3 5.31 0.3

MLB Game Notes call Saturday a TBD vs. TBD affair, but with rosters expanding for September the Brewers are expected to start rookie Brandon Woodruff as the fifth starter. Zach Davies and Jimmy Nelson have their work cut out for them. Against Gonzalez, Davies has a chance to continue his excellent string of starts. Over his last 10 starts, Davies has worked 65.3 innings, allowing 22 runs with a 45 strike out / 17 walk / 3 home run Fielding Independent Pitching performance. After a couple of hiccups against Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, Nelson helped the Brewers beat the Dodgers with a strong quality start in Los Angeles, showing that the righty can continually adjust through rough stretches in his 2017 break out. Davies and Nelson have a chance to show that they are indeed leaders of the rotation, and they will set the scene for the Nationals series.

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