USATSI_9904782_168381442_lowres

2013 Top 10 Lists 3: The Players

Following my overview of the 2013 Baseball Prospectus Top 10 lists, I am presenting a detailed set of lists to showcase the full prospect class. This class features some stunning debuts by elite prospects (such as Carlos Correa), elite prospects morphing into steady MLB regulars (Gerrit Cole, Christian Yelich, and Julio Tehran, for example), and some 50 Overall Future Prospects that have significantly developed beyond their prospect rank at the MLB level (Nolan Arenado, Danny Salazar, Adam Eaton, and A.J. Pollock serving as the best examples here). The prospect class has also featured several players lost to tragedy (Oscar Taveras, Jose Fernandez, and Yordano Ventura) and injury-interrupted careers (Zack Wheeler, Alex Wood, Dylan Bundy, and Jurickson Profar). Brewers fans will be especially interested in this prospect class due to the fact that it still features undeveloped question marks yet to establish MLB careers (Josh Hader, Lewis Brinson, Jonathan Villar, and Domingo Santana are the Brewers of interest here. Other notable prospects looking to establish themselves include Jameson Taillon and Joey Gallo, among others still).

2013 Top 10: Value and Risk
2013 Top 10: Organizations

The gist here is that a prospect class will never truly be complete. Extremely young players that appear on rankings may burn out, or they may turn into Josh Hader (who fell off lists, was traded twice, and now will appear as a member of the 2017 Top 10 prospect class). There will be 70 OFP prospects who immediately become superstars, prospects who lose their luster due to injury (or worse), highly rated prospects who become Wily Peralta or Billy Hamilton, and moderately rated prospects who become Jake Odorizzi or Nolan Arenado.


With that in mind, the first list is a Top 50 of the WARP performers from this prospect class thus far. Some players are listed twice because they appeared on two teams’ prospect lists due to the timing of offseason transactions:

Rank OFP Career WARP Years Made MLB Career Progression
Nolan Arenado 50 21.9 4 2013 2.4 / 4.3 / 7.4 / 7.8
Chris Archer 60 16.6 5 2012 0.7 / 1.7 / 2.8 / 6.3 / 5.0
Adam Eaton 50 15.7 5 2012 0.7 / -0.2 / 3.1 / 4.6 / 7.5
Jose Fernandez 70 15.6 4 2013 5.2 / 1.8 / 1.7 / 6.9
Yasiel Puig 60 13.6 4 2013 3.9 / 6.2 / 1.5 / 2.0
Sonny Gray 60 13.2 4 2013 1.8 / 4.6 / 5.2 / 1.7
Christian Yelich 60 12.9 4 2013 1.5 / 2.8 / 3.2 / 5.3
Anthony Rendon 60 11.5 4 2013 1.3 / 5.5 / 1.0 / 3.7
George Springer 60 11.3 3 2014 2.6 / 3.6 / 5.1
Gerrit Cole 70 11.1 4 2013 2.4 / 2.3 / 4.6 / 1.7
Julio Tehran 60 11.1 6 2011 -0.4 / 0.0 / 2.2 / 4.5 / 1.0 / 3.8
Noah Syndergaard 70 9.8 2 2015 4.1 / 5.6
Noah Syndergaard 70 9.8 2 2015 4.1 / 5.6
Yordano Ventura 60 9.6 4 2013 0.5 / 3.3 / 3.4 / 2.5
Francisco Lindor 70 9.5 2 2015 3.3 / 6.2
Danny Salazar 50 9.5 4 2013 1.5 / 1.2 / 4.1 / 2.9
A.J. Pollock 50 9.5 5 2012 0.2 / 1.3 / 2.2 / 5.3 / 0.4
Jake Odorizzi 50 9.2 5 2012 -0.1 / 0.2 / 1.7 / 4.3 / 3.2
Marcell Ozuna 50 8.8 4 2013 1.6 / 3.2 / 0.5 / 3.5
Corey Seager 60 8.5 2 2015 1.9 / 6.6
Jake Odorizzi 50 8.4 5 2012 -0.2 / 0.1 / 1.4 / 4.5 / 2.5
Carlos Martinez 70   8.0 4 2013 0.2 / 1.3 / 3.0 / 3.9
Travis d’Arnaud 60 7.8 4 2013 0.2 / 2.3 / 3.9 / 1.4
Travis d’Arnaud 60 7.8 4 2013 0.2 / 2.3 / 3.9 / 1.4
Carlos Correa 70 7.7 2 2015 2.6 / 5.1
Kevin Gausman 70 7.5 4 2013 0.9 / 1.5 / 2.0 / 3.1
Xander Bogaerts 70 7.4 4 2013 0.5 / 0.7 / 3.5 / 2.7
Gregory Polanco 60 7.4 3 2014 1.5 / 2.8 / 3.0
Marcus Stroman 60 7.1 3 2014 3.4 / 0.3 / 3.5
Jackie Bradley 60 7 4 2013 -0.3 / 0.9 / 2.1 / 4.2
Alex Wood 50 7 4 2013 0.8 / 4.1 / 0.7 / 1.4
Kyle Gibson 60 6.8 4 2013 -0.9 / 3.2 / 4.0 / 0.5
Jonathan Villar 60 6.7 4 2013 0.0 / 1.2 / 0.8 / 4.7
Billy Hamilton 70 6.6 4 2013 0.5 / 3.2 / 0.6 / 2.4
Cody Allen 60 6.6 5 2012 0.1 / 1.4 / 1.6 / 1.9 / 1.6
Wil Myers 60 6.6 4 2013 2.1 / -0.3 / 0.8 / 3.6
Martin Perez 50 6.3 5 2012 -0.1 / 1.1 / 1.1 / 1.2 / 2.4
Wil Myers 60 6.2 4 2013 2.1 / -0.3 / 0.8 / 3.6
Jeurys Familia 50 6 5 2012 0.2 / 0.1 / 1.5 / 2.2 / 2.1
Didi Gregorious 50 6 5 2012 0.0 / 0.3 / 1.3 / 2.1 / 2.2
Joe Panik 50 6 3 2014 0.5 / 2.8 / 2.7
Kolten Wong 50   5.9 4 2013 -0.4 / 0.6 / 3.1 / 2.7
Lance McCullers 70 5.7 2 2015 2.5 / 2.1
Aaron Sanchez 70 5.6 3 2014 0.8 / 1.1 / 3.7
Eugenio Suarez 50 5.5 3 2014 0.9 / 2.4 / 2.2
Mike Zunino 50 5.5 4 2013 1.1 / 3.3 / -0.3 / 1.6
Addison Russell 70 5.4 2 2015 1.6 / 3.8
Jedd Gyorko 50 5.4 4 2013 1.3 / -0.0 / 0.7 / 3.4
Randal Grichuk 50 5.1 3 2014 0.0 / 2.5 / 2.6
James Paxton 50 4.8 4 2013 0.6 / 1.4 / 0.3 / 2.5
Wilmer Flores 50 4.7 4 2013 -0.2 / 0.8 / 2.2 / 2.0

Baseball Prospectus really did not miss on the 70 OFP grades in this class. Indeed, 13 of the Top 50 performers are from the 70 OFP class. 28 prospects from the 60 OFP class made the top performers list, as did 19 prospects from the 50 OFP class. It should be noted that four full seasons after the publication of the 2013 Top 10 prospects list, the WARP threshold appears relatively low, but even a 4.7 WARP career like Wilmer Flores is nothing to scoff at. Of course, there are some players destined to breakout from this list, even including highly regarded prospects like Carlos Correa, and some fun question marks remain (like Addison Russell or Wil Myers or Marcus Stroman).


A valid complaint about assessing a player by total WARP at this point in their career would be that a prospect graduating in 2013 would have a distinct advantage over a prospect graduating in 2016. For this reason, I’ve ranked each MLB performance for the 2013 Top 10 class by WARP-per-Year. Fittingly, Nolan Arenado remains the best player of the class thus far, but Francisco Lindor, Corey Seager, and Correa shoot up the list.

It’s fun to look at this list and discern an annual WARP level to fit a player’s OFP. Is a 2.8 WARP truly a 70 OFP performance? Of course, the answer is “it depends:” a player that produces 2.8 WARP once is not a 70 OFP class guy, but a 70 class prospect who produces 2.8 WARP for a decade would obviously be an extremely valuable player.

Rank OFP Career WARP Years WARP/Year Made MLB Career Progression
Nolan Arenado 50 21.9 4 5.475 2013 2.4 / 4.3 / 7.4 / 7.8
Noah Syndergaard 70 9.8 2 4.9 2015 4.1 / 5.6
Noah Syndergaard 70 9.8 2 4.9 2015 4.1 / 5.6
Francisco Lindor 70 9.5 2 4.75 2015 3.3 / 6.2
Corey Seager 60 8.5 2 4.25 2015 1.9 / 6.6
Jose Fernandez 70 15.6 4 3.9 2013 5.2 / 1.8 / 1.7 / 6.9
Carlos Correa 70 7.7 2 3.85 2015 2.6 / 5.1
George Springer 60 11.3 3 3.766666667 2014 2.6 / 3.6 / 5.1
Michael Fulmer 60 3.5 1 3.5 2016 3.5
Yasiel Puig 60 13.6 4 3.4 2013 3.9 / 6.2 / 1.5 / 2.0
Chris Archer 60 16.6 5 3.32 2012 0.7 / 1.7 / 2.8 / 6.3 / 5.0
Sonny Gray 60 13.2 4 3.3 2013 1.8 / 4.6 / 5.2 / 1.7
Trevor Story 60 3.3 1 3.3 2016 3.3
Christian Yelich 60 12.9 4 3.225 2013 1.5 / 2.8 / 3.2 / 5.3
Adam Eaton 50 15.7 5 3.14 2012 0.7 / -0.2 / 3.1 / 4.6 / 7.5
Anthony Rendon 60 11.5 4 2.875 2013 1.3 / 5.5 / 1.0 / 3.7
Lance McCullers 70 5.7 2 2.85 2015 2.5 / 2.1
Gerrit Cole 70 11.1 4 2.775 2013 2.4 / 2.3 / 4.6 / 1.7
Addison Russell 70 5.4 2 2.7 2015 1.6 / 3.8
Gregory Polanco 60 7.4 3 2.466666667 2014 1.5 / 2.8 / 3.0
Yordano Ventura 60 9.6 4 2.4 2013 0.5 / 3.3 / 3.4 / 2.5
Danny Salazar 50 9.5 4 2.375 2013 1.5 / 1.2 / 4.1 / 2.9
Marcus Stroman 60 7.1 3 2.366666667 2014 3.4 / 0.3 / 3.5
Marcell Ozuna 50 8.8 4 2.2 2013 1.6 / 3.2 / 0.5 / 3.5
Carlos Martinez 70   8.0 4 2 2013 0.2 / 1.3 / 3.0 / 3.9
Joe Panik 50 6 3 2 2014 0.5 / 2.8 / 2.7
Jameson Taillon 70 2 1 2 2016 2
Travis d’Arnaud 60 7.8 4 1.95 2013 0.2 / 2.3 / 3.9 / 1.4
Travis d’Arnaud 60 7.8 4 1.95 2013 0.2 / 2.3 / 3.9 / 1.4
A.J. Pollock 50 9.5 5 1.9 2012 0.2 / 1.3 / 2.2 / 5.3 / 0.4
Kevin Gausman 70 7.5 4 1.875 2013 0.9 / 1.5 / 2.0 / 3.1
Aaron Sanchez 70 5.6 3 1.866666667 2014 0.8 / 1.1 / 3.7
Xander Bogaerts 70 7.4 4 1.85 2013 0.5 / 0.7 / 3.5 / 2.7
Miguel Sano 60 3.7 2 1.85 2015 1.9 / 1.9
Julio Tehran 60 11.1 6 1.85 2011 -0.4 / 0.0 / 2.2 / 4.5 / 1.0 / 3.8
Jake Odorizzi 50 9.2 5 1.84 2012 -0.1 / 0.2 / 1.7 / 4.3 / 3.2
Eugenio Suarez 50 5.5 3 1.833333333 2014 0.9 / 2.4 / 2.2
Zack Wheeler 70 3.6 2 1.8 2013 1.0 / 2.7 / /
Jackie Bradley 60 7 4 1.75 2013 -0.3 / 0.9 / 2.1 / 4.2
Alex Wood 50 7 4 1.75 2013 0.8 / 4.1 / 0.7 / 1.4
Kyle Gibson 60 6.8 4 1.7 2013 -0.9 / 3.2 / 4.0 / 0.5
Randal Grichuk 50 5.1 3 1.7 2014 0.0 / 2.5 / 2.6
Jake Odorizzi 50 8.4 5 1.68 2012 -0.2 / 0.1 / 1.4 / 4.5 / 2.5
Jonathan Villar 60 6.7 4 1.675 2013 0.0 / 1.2 / 0.8 / 4.7
Billy Hamilton 70 6.6 4 1.65 2013 0.5 / 3.2 / 0.6 / 2.4
Wil Myers 60 6.6 4 1.65 2013 2.1 / -0.3 / 0.8 / 3.6
Eddie Rosario 50 3.2 2 1.6 2015 2.4 / 0.8
Eddie Rosario 50 3.2 2 1.6 2015 2.4 / 0.8
Tony Wolters 50 1.6 1 1.6 2016 1.6
Wil Myers 60 6.2 4 1.55 2013 2.1 / -0.3 / 0.8 / 3.6
Joc Pederson 50 4.5 3 1.5 2014 -0.1 / 1.2 / 3.4
Nomar Mazara 60 1.5 1 1.5 2016 1.5
Kolten Wong 50   5.9 4 1.475 2013 -0.4 / 0.6 / 3.1 / 2.7
Mike Zunino 50 5.5 4 1.375 2013 1.1 / 3.3 / -0.3 / 1.6
J.T. Realmuto 50 4.1 3 1.366666667 2014 -0.0 / 0.6 / 3.5
Jedd Gyorko 50 5.4 4 1.35 2013 1.3 / -0.0 / 0.7 / 3.4
Roberto Osuna 60 2.7 2 1.35 2015 1.6 / 1.1
Cody Allen 60 6.6 5 1.32 2012 0.1 / 1.4 / 1.6 / 1.9 / 1.6
Gary Sanchez 60 2.6 2 1.3 2015 -0.0 / 2.6
Eduardo Rodriguez 50 2.6 2 1.3 2015 1.1 / 1.5
David Dahl 70 1.3 1 1.3 2016 1.3
Martin Perez 50 6.3 5 1.26 2012 -0.1 / 1.1 / 1.1 / 1.2 / 2.4
Jeurys Familia 50 6 5 1.2 2012 0.2 / 0.1 / 1.5 / 2.2 / 2.1
Didi Gregorious 50 6 5 1.2 2012 0.0 / 0.3 / 1.3 / 2.1 / 2.2
James Paxton 50 4.8 4 1.2 2013 0.6 / 1.4 / 0.3 / 2.5
Tyler Anderson 50 1.2 1 1.2 2016 1.2
Wilmer Flores 50 4.7 4 1.175 2013 -0.2 / 0.8 / 2.2 / 2.0
Byron Buxton 70 2.3 2 1.15 2015 0.6 / 1.7
Maikel Franco 60 3.4 3 1.133333333 2014 -0.3 / 2.1 / 1.7
Taijuan Walker 70 4.5 4 1.125 2013 0.0 / 0.4 / 2.4 / 1.7
Tommy Joseph 50 1.1 1 1.1 2016 1.1
Jose Ramirez 50 4.3 4 1.075 2013 0.3 / 0.7 / 0.5 / 2.8
Scooter Gennett 50   4.0 4 1 2013 1.8 / 0.4 / -0.2 / 2.0
Tyler Naquin 50 1 1 1 2016 1
Nate Karns 50 3.8 4 0.95 2013 -0.1 / 0.1 / 2.8 / 1.0
Trevor Rosenthal 60 4.6 5 0.92 2012 0.4 / 2.3 / 0.9 / 1.5 / -0.1
Nick Castellanos 60 3.6 4 0.9 2013 -0.2 / 1.0 / 1.3 / 1.6
Jose Iglesias 50 4.4 5 0.88 2011 -0.0 / -0.3 / 2.0 / / 0.4 / 2.4
Joe Ross 60 1.7 2 0.85 2015 1.5 / 0.9
Trayce Thompson 50 1.7 2 0.85 2015 1.1 / 0.6
Delino DeShields Jr 60 1.6 2 0.8 2015 1.7 / -0.1
Felipe Rivera 60 1.6 2 0.8 2015 0.7 / 1.0
Aaron Hicks 60 3.1 4 0.775 2013 1.0 / 0.9 / 1.5 / -0.3
Michael Wacha 60   3.1 4 0.775 2013 1.3 / 1.4 / 2.9 / 0.2
C.J. Cron 50 2.3 3 0.766666667 2014 0.1 / 0.6 / 1.5
Jake Marisnick 60 3 4 0.75 2013 0.1 / 0.9 / 1.6 / 0.4
Alex Colome 50 3 4 0.75 2013 -0.1 / 0.1 / 1.5 /1.5
Matt Adams 50 3.7 5 0.74 2012 -0.3 / 1.1 / 1.2 / -0.2 / 1.8
Justin Grimm 50 3.6 5 0.72 2012 0.0 / -0.3 / 0.9 / 1.0 / 0.9
Albert Almora 60 0.7 1 0.7 2016 0.7
Wily Peralta 60 3.2 5 0.64 2012 0.7 / 0.9 / 1.7 / -0.8 / 1.1
Javier Baez 70 1.9 3 0.633333333 2014 -1.0 / 0.4 / 2.5
Cody Asche 50 2.2 4 0.55 2013 0.6 / 1.4 / -0.1 / 0.3
Jorge Soler 60 1.6 3 0.533333333 2014 0.7 / -0.1 / 1.0
Chad Bettis 60 2.1 4 0.525 2013 -0.2 / -0.9 / 1.6 / 1.5
Nick Franklin 50 2.1 4 0.525 2013 2.5 / -0.4 / -0.7 / 0.6
Andrew Chafin 60 1.5 3 0.5 2014 -0.1 / 1.2 / 0.4
Oswaldo Arcia 60 1 2 0.5 4 2013
Blake Snell 60 0.5 1 0.5 2016 0.5
Slade Heathcott 60 0.5 1 0.5 2015 0.5 / /
Roman Quinn 60 0.5 1 0.5 2016 0.5
Dylan Bundy 70 0.9 2 0.45 2012 -0.0 / / / / 0.9
Jose Peraza 60 0.9 2 0.45 2015 0.1 / 0.8
Max Kepler 50 0.9 2 0.45 2015 -0.1 / 1.0
Cory Spagenberg 50   1.3 3 0.433333333 2014 0.1 / 1.2 / 0.0
Arodys Vizcaino 70 1.7 4 0.425 2011 0.1 / / / 0.0 / 0.8 / 0.7
Jarred Cosart 60 1.7 4 0.425 2013 1.3 / 2.7 / 0.9 / 0.2
Josh Bell 60 0.4 1 0.4 2016 0.4
Mauricio Cabrera 60 0.4 1 0.4 2016 0.4
Mitch Haniger 50 0.4 1 0.4 2016 0.4
Andrew Susac 50 1.2 3 0.4 2014 0.5 / 0.6 / 0.1
Shelby Miller 60 1.9 5 0.38 2012 0.3 / 1.5 / -0.7 / 4.9 / -1.4
Brandon Maurer 50 1.5 4 0.375 2013 -0.0 / 0.1 / 0.9 / 0.5
Domingo Santana 60 1.1 3 0.366666667 2014 -0.4 / 0.5 / 1.0
Bruce Rondon 50 1.1 3 0.366666667 2013 0.5 / / 0.5 / 0.7
Jonathan Schoop 50 1.4 4 0.35 2013 0.0 / -0.6 / 1.0 / 1.0
Taylor Jungmann 50 0.7 2 0.35 2015 1.5 / 0.1
Chris Withrow 50 1 3 0.333333333 2013 0.5 / 0.1 / / 0.3
Jorge Polanco 50 0.9 3 0.3 2014 0.2 / 0.0 / 0.6
Austin Brice 60 0.3 1 0.3 2016 0.3
Tyler Gasnow 50 0.3 1 0.3 2016 0.3
Gavin Cecchini 50 0.3 1 0.3 2016 0.3
Tyler Austin 50 0.3 1 0.3 2016 0.1
Daniel Norris 60 0.8 3 0.266666667 2014 0.0 / 0.3 / 0.4
Tommy La Stella 50 0.8 3 0.266666667 2013 0.2 / 0.2 / 0.4
Avisail Garcia 60 1.3 5 0.26 2012 0.2 / -0.2 / -0.0 / 0.4 / 0.9
Dan Straily 50 1.3 5 0.26 2012 -0.3 / 1.8 / -0.9 / -0.1 / 0.7
Cheslor Cuthbert 60 0.5 2 0.25 2015 0.1 / 0.4
Sammy Solis 50 0.5 2 0.25 2015 -0.2 / 0.6
Austin Hedges 70 0.4 2 0.2 2015 0.7 / -0.3
Seth Gilmartin 60 0.4 2 0.2 2015 0.6 / -0.1
Miguel Almonte 60 0.2 1 0.2 2015 0.2
Brandon Nimmo 50 0.2 1 0.2 2016 0.2
Christian Garcia 50 0.2 1 0.2 2012 0.2
Matt Purke 50 0.2 1 0.2 2016 0.2
Luis Sardinas 60 0.5 3 0.166666667 2014 0.0 / -0.3 / 0.8
Rafael Montero 50 0.5 3 0.166666667 2014 0.3 / 0.2 / -0.0
Tyler Skaggs 60 0.6 4 0.15 2012 -0.9 / -0.5 / 1.7 / / 0.2
Garin Cecchini 60 0.3 2 0.15 2014 0.3 / 0.0
Matt Barnes 60 0.4 3 0.133333333 2014 0.2 / -0.3 / 0.5
Tyler Thornburg 50 0.5 5 0.1 2012 -0.5 / 0.4 / -0.0 / -0.2 / 1.7
Blake Swihart 60 0.2 2 0.1 2015 0.1 / 0.0
Richie Shaffer 50 0.2 2 0.1 2015 0.1 / 0.1
Jorge Lopez 60 0.1 1 0.1 2015 0.1
Casey Crosby 50 0.1 1 0.1 2012 0
Brian Johnson 50 0.1 1 0.1 2015 0.1 / /
Gary Brown 50 0.1 1 0.1 2014 0.1 / / /
Jose A. Ramirez 60 0.2 3 0.066666667 2014 -0.1 / -0.3 / 0.6
Robbie Erlin 50 0.2 4 0.05 2013 0.2 / 0.1 / 0.1 / 0.1
Mason Williams 60 0.1 2 0.05 2015 0.1 / 0.0
Ethan Martin 60 0.1 2 0.05 2013 0.2 / -0.1 / / /
J.R. Graham 60 0.1 2 0.05 2015 0.1 / 0.0
Bryce Brentz 50 0.1 2 0.05 2014 0.2 / / -0.0
Brett Jackson 50 0.1 2 0.05 2012 0.2 / / -0.1
Tony Cingrani 50 0.2 5 0.04 2012 0.1 / 1.4 / -1.3 / 0.1 / 0.0
Andrew Heaney 60 0.1 3 0.033333333 2014 -0.3 / 0.5 / -0.1
Rio Ruiz 60 0 1 0 2016 0
Onelki Garcia 60 0 1 0 2013 0.0 / / / /
Mac Williamson 60 0 2 0 2015 -0.3 / 0.3
Robert Stephenson 60 0 1 0 2016 0
A.J. Cole 60 0 2 0 2015 -0.1 / 0.1
Carson Kelly 50 0 1 0 2016 0
Steven Moya 50 0 3 0 2014 0.0 / 0.1 / -0.0
Jayson Aquino 50 0 1 0 2016 0
Zach Lee 50 0 1 0 2015 -0.0 / /
Nick Maronde 50 -0.1 3 -0.033333333 2012 -0.1 / 0.0 / -0.0
Joey Gallo 60 -0.1 2 -0.05 2015 0.2 / -0.3
Henry Owens 50 -0.1 2 -0.05 2015 0.1 / -0.2
Heath Hembree 50 -0.2 4 -0.05 2013 0.1 / -0.2 / -0.3 / 0.2
Eury Perez 50 -0.2 4 -0.05 2012 -0.1 / -0.1 / -0.1 / 0.2
Casey Kelly 50 -0.2 3 -0.066666667 2012 -0.0 / / / -0.3 / -0.3
Alen Hanson 60 -0.1 1 -0.1 2016 -0.1
Brian Goodwin 60 -0.1 1 -0.1 2016 -0.1
Scott Snodgress 50 -0.1 1 -0.1 2014 -0.1 / /
Chris Reed 50 -0.1 1 -0.1 2015 -0.1 / /
Chris Stratton 50 -0.1 1 -0.1 2016 -0.1
Archie Bradley 70 -0.2 2 -0.1 2015 -0.5 / 0.3
Chris Beck 50 -0.2 2 -0.1 2015 -0.0 / -0.2
Rafael Ortega 50 -0.2 2 -0.1 2014 0.2 / / / / -0.4
Matt Davidson 50 -0.2 2 -0.1 2013 -0.2 / / / 0.0
L.J. Hoes 50 -0.5 4 -0.125 2012 -0.0 / 0.2 / -0.7 / -0.1 / /
Jonathan Singleton 60 -0.3 2 -0.15 2014 -0.2 / -0.1
R.J. Alvarez 60 -0.3 2 -0.15 2014 -0.2 / -0.2
Chris Owings 50 -0.6 4 -0.15 2013 0.0 / 0.3 / -1.8 / 1.0
Jose Rondon 50 -0.2 1 -0.2 2016 -0.2
Matthew Olson 50 -0.2 1 -0.2 2016 -0.2
Jose Campos 50 -0.2 1 -0.2 2016 -0.2
Francisco Peguero 50 -0.4 2 -0.2 2012 -0.1 / -0.3 / / / /
Jurickson Profar 70 -0.7 3 -0.233333333 2012 -0.2 / 0.2 / / / -0.6
Christian Bethancourt 60 -1 4 -0.25 2013 -0.0 / -0.5 / -0.5 / 0.1
Michael Foltynewicz 50 -0.8 3 -0.266666667 2014 -0.1 / -0.2 / 1.5
Jorge Alfaro 70 -0.3 1 -0.3 2016 -0.1
Renato Nunez 60 -0.3 1 -0.3 2016 -0.3
Dan Vogelbach 60 -0.3 1 -0.3 2016 -0.3
Sean Nolin 60 -1 3 -0.333333333 2013 -0.1 / -0.0 / -0.9 / /
Michael Choice 60 -1 3 -0.333333333 2013 0.0 / -1.0 / -0.0 / /
Kaleb Cowart 60 -0.7 2 -0.35 2015 -0.1 / -0.6
Tyler Matzek 60 -0.7 2 -0.35 2014 -0.6 / -0.1 / /
Matt Magill 50 -0.7 2 -0.35 2013 -0.7 / / / 0.0
Andre Rienzo 50 -1.1 3 -0.366666667 2013 -0.7 / -0.6 / 0.3 //
Mike Olt 60 -1.2 3 -0.4 2012 -0.2 / / -0.3 / -0.6
Stefen Romero 50 -1.2 3 -0.4 2014 -1.1 / -0.0 / -0.1
Rymer Liriano 60 -0.4 1 -0.4 2014 -0.4
Daniel Corcino 50 -0.4 1 -0.4 2014 -0.4 / / /
Jonathan Pettibone 50 -0.8 2 -0.4 2013 -0.5 / -0.3 / / /
Erik Johnson 50 -1.6 4 -0.4 2013 -0.4 / 0.0 / -0.2 / -1.2
Grant Green 50 -1.8 4 -0.45 2013 -0.7 / -0.3 / -0.5 / -0.3
Mike Wright 50 -1 2 -0.5 2015 -0.8 / -0.2
Allen Webster 60 -1.6 3 -0.533333333 2013 -0.5 / -0.3 / -0.8 / /
Lucas Giolito 70 -0.6 1 -0.6 2016 -0.6
Jose Barrios 60 -0.6 1 -0.6 2016 -0.6
Jake Thompson 50 -0.6 1 -0.6 2016 -0.6
Matt Wisler 50 -1.2 2 -0.6 2015 0.1 / 0.4
Kyle Parker 50 -1.2 2 -0.6 2014 -0.2 / -1.0 / /
Rob Brantly 50 -1.9 3 -0.633333333 2012 0.4 / -1.8 / / -0.5
Carlos Sanchez 50 -2.1 3 -0.7 2014 -0.7 / -0.7 / -0.7
Justin Nicolino 60 -1.8 2 -0.9 2015 -0.9 / -0.9
Johnny Hellweg 60 -1 1 -1 2013 -0.6
Adalberto Mondesi 60 -1 1 -1 2016 -1
Oscar Taveras 70 -1.3 1 -1.3 2014 -1.3
Adam Morgan 60 -2.6 2 -1.3 2015 -1.8 / -0.8
Tyrell Jenkins 60 -1.7 1 -1.7 2016 -1.7

It is worth noting, across the board, how rare it is for prospects to graduate from a Top 10 list and produce two consecutive seasons of 2.0 WARP or better within the first four seasons of that list. This suggests that the ultimate gamble with prospects may not be whether they reach the MLB, but when they cash out their OFP. Very few prospects are able to graduate and impact MLB clubs, which should indeed be a lesson to the rebuilding Brewers. The rebuild-to-contending mode will not occur due to the 2017 Brewers prospect class.


Finally, here are the 2013 Top 10 prospects yet to have reached the MLB. This list includes plenty of organizational players, as well as some interesting prospects on the 2017 Top 10 prospects lists.

No MLB OFP Career Progression
Bubba Starling 70
Lewis Brinson 70 Yet to debut (2017)
Luiz Gohara 70 Yet to debut (2017)
Victor Roache 60
Clint Coulter 60
Max Fried 60
Adys Portillo 60
Ronald Guzman 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Kyle Zimmer 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Bubba Starling 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Jorge Bonifacio 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Luis Heredia 60
D.J. Davis 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Alberto Tirado 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Victor Sanchez 60
Courtney Hawkins 60
Taylor Guerreri 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Nolan Sanburn 60
Ty Hensley 60
Angelo Gumbs 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Mark Montgomery 60
Rafael De Paula 60
Duane Underwood 60/70 Yet to debut (2017)
Dillon Maples 60
Stryker Trahan 60
Michael Perez 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Jessie Biddle 60
Carlos Tocci 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Shane Watson 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Kyle Crick 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Lucas Sims 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Nick Travieso 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Jonathan Reynoso 60
Tyrone Taylor 50
Patrick Wisdom 50
Taylor Lindsey 50
Mark Sappington 50
Austin Wood 50
Eric Stamets 50
Danry Vasquez 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Austin Schotts 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Harold Castro 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Travis Harrison 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Ronny Rodriguez 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Mitch Brown 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Luigi Rodriguez 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Jason Adam 50
Wyatt Mathison 50
Nick Kingham 50
Barrett Barnes 50
Domingo Tapia 50
Danny Hultzen 50
Tyler Pike 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Nick Delmonico 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Branden Kline 50
Adrian Marin 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Josh Hader 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Keenyn Walker 50
Keon Barnum 50
Hak-Ju Lee 50
Drew Vettleson 50
Daniel Robertson 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Miles Head 50
Pierce Johnson 50/60
Christian Villanueva 50
Will Swanner 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Avery Romero 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Garrett Gould 50
Zachary Bird 50
Clayton Blackburn 50
Martin Agosta 50
Luis Merejo 50
Ismael Guillon 50
Jesse Winker 50 Yet to debut (2017)
Kyle Lotzkar 50
Dan Langfield 50
Matt Skole 50
Dorssys Paulino 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Matt Smoral 60 Yet to debut (2017)
Myles Jaye 50

I tried to mark current prospects on an MLB trajectory with a “Yet to debut (2017)” tag, but that is obviously subjective. This is especially tough to judge in the case of prospects who are still active but stalled in Class-AA or Class-AAA ball. Take a prospect like Jed Bradley, for example; Bradley looked like a Top 10 list casualty for some time, but then reached the MLB at the end of the 2016 campaign. So, anything goes, in some sense, once you reach the upper levels of affiliated ball.

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