Tl;dr: The Brewers chased starter Adam Conley in the fourth inning and continued scoring on the Marlins bullpen in a 10-2 win.
Top Play (WPA):
As mentioned above, the Brewers knocked Adam Conley out of the game after four innings, and Jonathan Villar played a large part in building that 4-2 lead. He terrorized Conley, going 2-3 with 2 stolen bases and 2 runs. His two run single in the fourth inning gave the Brewers a 3-2 lead, which they would not relinquish, and it was worth .232 WPA.
The fourth inning was a disaster for Conley, as he allowed three hits, a walk, and a hit by pitch, while also throwing a wild pitch. The start paled in comparison to April 29 when he threw 7.2 no hit innings against Milwaukee in a win. Below are two Brooks Baseball charts for his two starts against the Brewers. While Conley’s velocity was slightly down in his second start, the more telling column is whiffs. The Brewers swung at a higher percentage of pitches last night, but tellingly, they missed fewer. In particular, Conley only induced two swings and misses with his fast ball, as he was not fooling the Brewers. They could lay off his wild pitches and get solid contact when he ventured into the strike zone.
Here’s how last night’s game compares…
| Pitch Type | Velo (Max) | H-Break | V-Break | Count | Strikes / % | Swings / % | Whiffs / % | BIP (No Out) | SNIPs / % | LWTS |
| FF (Four-seam Fastball) | 92.3 (94.8) | 10.44 | 7.74 | 51 | 31 / 60.8% | 19 / 37.3% | 2 / 3.9% | 9 (5) | 22 / 52.4% | 1.72 |
| CH (Changeup) | 82.6 (84.6) | 12.28 | 5.37 | 17 | 11 / 64.7% | 9 / 52.9% | 2 / 11.8% | 4 (1) | 7 / 53.8% | -0.32 |
| SL (Slider) | 85.5 (88.0) | 3.37 | 2.17 | 16 | 10 / 62.5% | 7 / 43.8% | 4 / 25.0% | 2 (1) | 8 / 57.1% | -0.08 |
…to the April 29 match-up:
| Pitch Type | Velo (Max) | H-Break | V-Break | Count | Strikes / % | Swings / % | Whiffs / % | BIP (No Out) | SNIPs / % | LWTS |
| FA (Fastball) | 93.5 (96.7) | 10.62 | 8.28 | 78 | 53 / 67.9% | 35 / 44.9% | 7 / 9.0% | 10 (1) | 43 / 63.2% | -3.35 |
| CH (Changeup) | 83.7 (85.3) | 11.67 | 5.70 | 21 | 10 / 47.6% | 9 / 42.9% | 4 / 19.0% | 3 (0) | 7 / 38.9% | -1.06 |
| SL (Slider) | 87.5 (89.0) | 3.49 | 3.33 | 17 | 8 / 47.1% | 8 / 47.1% | 3 / 17.6% | 3 (0) | 5 / 35.7% | -0.52 |
Worst Play (WPA):
When you win 10-2, worst play is a relative term. In this case, the bottom play occurred in the second inning when Zach Davies struck out with runners on 2nd and 3rd for the 2nd out of the inning, which produced a -.072 WPA. Villar then struck out to end the inning with the Brewers up 1-0. At the time it seemed like a missed opportunity, especially after the Marlins tied the game in their next at bat with a J.T. Realmuto single, then took the lead in the 3rd inning on a Marcel Ozuna single.
On the mound, Davies made it five innings, only allowing 2 runs. However, he gave up 5 hits and 3 walks, while the Marlins only whiffed twice on his 82 pitches. Not a typo. Davies had trouble finding the strike zone consistently and allowed hard contact throughout the game. Luckily, the balls stayed in the park, especially in a perilous fifth inning in which Davies got three outs on two line drives and a deep fly ball, in between a double. On this day, Davies was good enough.
Trends to Watch:
Checking in on last week’s trend on whether Chris Carter was taking off… well, not really. He’s not been terrible, but 5-23 with two walks, and only one extra base hit (a home run) is not a crazy run. It’s a fine week, and certainly above the depths to which Carter has plunged outside of his streaks, but he has yet to really take off.
Up Next:
The rubber match of the series is tonight. Chase Anderson starts for the Brewers. Since his promising first start of the season, he’s allowed 20 runs (15 earned) in four starts. In his last outing, the Marlins drilled him for six runs (5 earned) on 9 hits and 4 walks across 4.3 innings. The opposing starter tomorrow is Wei-Yi Chen, who also opposed Anderson in his last start. Chen pitched slightly better, allowing 3 runs on 4 hits and 2 walks in 6.7 innings. Game time is 6:10.