Jonathan Villar and High-Risk Gambles

It should come as no surprise for me to say that the Brewers are not favorites to win their own division.  PECOTA’s projections have been released today, and the Brewers are projected to be an 83-win team, or six wins worse than the Cubs.  Their 83-win projection puts them in the same range as the […]



Last year, amidst some projections that suggested the Milwaukee Brewers would struggle to beat the 70-win mark, PECOTA stuck with bullish preseason estimates in the upper-70s. The deep Brewers roster was also bolstered by high floor developing players like Domingo Santana and Zach Davies, as well as second-chancers like Travis Shaw and Chase Anderson, and […]


When PECOTA Picked the Brewers

The Brewers won the division 350 times in 2017. 350 times out of 5,000, the Brewers were better than the Cubs, Pirates, Cardinals, and Reds. In the preseason, Baseball Prospectus alumnus Sam Miller published a fun perusal of the PECOTA oddities generated during playoffs odds simulations at ESPN. Of course, the Brewers were hardly on […]