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The No Good, Very Bad,… .500

A month ago, had someone told Brewers fans and analysts that the club would be .500 after their first dozen games, I gather no one would have even shrugged. First things first, there is this essential feeling that even though *every game matters*, early in the season is the time to iron things out and […]

Brewers Farm Update

Prospect Opening Day

So far, so good for the 2018 Brewers: the club is six games into the season, and spinning a 26 Runs Scored / 28 Runs Allowed differential into a 4-2 record thanks to late inning heroics and a phenomenal bullpen. Now, the rest of the system swings into gear for Milwaukee. Affiliated clubs in Colorado […]

The Continued Costs of Miller Park

The Next Brewers

Perhaps the most understated point of the offseason for these Milwaukee Brewers is the longevity present on the current roster. Many Brewers fans are upset with the front office for failing to make a big splash in the pitching free agency market, typically under the argument that since the club “went big” in acquiring outfielders […]

The Continued Costs of Miller Park

Exploring Runs Prevented

Recently a BPMilwaukee Twitter reader asked about Runs Prevented, as my set of pitching posts leaned somewhat heavily on the stat. It’s a great question and I’m glad someone asked it. I’ve been writing about Runs Prevented for a decade, and it’s easy to forget to explain myself when I’m using the statistic. That’s a […]

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Superstar Odds

Part One: Defining Elite Prospect Roles Milwaukee Brewers top prospect Keston Hiura is having a loud spring training campaign with the big league club. The bat-first second baseman boasted a .385 batting average / .407 on-base percentage / .538 slugging percentage entering play on Thursday in 26 at bats. Forget any warning about the validity […]

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The Rotation is Good

What is a good pitching rotation in an MLB environment in which pitching rotations do not exist? Following the ideal model, a pitching rotation is a mechanism that an MLB team can use to line up five “starting pitchers” to rotate on a set schedule, and hopefully produce value by preventing runs during the cumulative […]

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Depth Beats Attrition

At what point does roster-building “theory” yield to the harsh facts of attrition that accumulate during a 162 game season? I ask this question because throughout the offseason, especially recently, Brewers fans appear upset with the depth that GM David Stearns has acquired for the 2018 season, and there are questions about whether this is […]

Brewers Farm Update

Speculating on on Rookie Arms

The release of Baseball Prospectus PECOTA projections is exciting for many reasons, not the least of which is finding the player comparisons that helped inform the projection system. Since PECOTA (and its redesigns) is based in part on finding comparable players in order to assess “true ability” and design aging curves suitable to each prospect […]

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Trust the Rotation

Entering 2017, the Milwaukee Brewers employed a rotational turn consisting of five righties: Junior Guerra, Zach Davies, Wily Peralta, Chase Anderson, and Jimmy Nelson. Coupled with Matt Garza on the disabled list, this major group was 20 runs below average over 845.3 innings in 2016. The sole positive producers were Guerra and Davies, the former […]

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Last year, amidst some projections that suggested the Milwaukee Brewers would struggle to beat the 70-win mark, PECOTA stuck with bullish preseason estimates in the upper-70s. The deep Brewers roster was also bolstered by high floor developing players like Domingo Santana and Zach Davies, as well as second-chancers like Travis Shaw and Chase Anderson, and […]