Jonathan Villar made another baserunning error this past weekend, and his gaffes on the base paths have become common this season. While the specific errors he is making are obviously not the difference between the Brewers being in and out of the playoffs, they are still worrying because seasons like this one are at least […]
Author: Seth Victor
Making Sense of Chris Carter’s 2016
Chris Carter got off to an excellent start in 2016, as he put up a .922 OPS in April. He has since cooled off considerably, as his season TAv stands at just .280. That makes him a solid hitter, but nowhere near good enough for a first baseman—and especially nowhere near good enough for a […]
Analyzing Garza’s Future with the Brewers
When Matt Garza signed with the Brewers before the 2014 season, the Brewers had to have been hoping that he would be a veteran anchor for a young and developing group of starting pitchers. Both Wily Peralta and Jimmy Nelson were already in the rotation, and Taylor Jungmann would join them the next year. In […]
Why Is Nelson Struggling?
Coming into this season, there was significant optimism surrounding Jimmy Nelson. He was heading into his age-27 season, and the Brewers were hoping he would take a step forward and establish his place in the rotation for years to come. PECOTA saw good things for him, with his 50th-percentile projection being 2.6 WARP and a […]
How Lucroy’s Defensive Decline Affects His Value
When Jonathan Lucroy was at his best, his value was a combination of his bat and glove. From his first partial season in 2010 through his incredible 8 WARP season of 2014, his FRAA was 153.8, or an average of over 30 per season. These numbers helped buoy his value even when his bat lagged […]
Analyzing a Potential Braun Trade
As we approach the trade deadline, rumors swirl. Some, of course, are more likely to be acted upon than others. Someone like Rich Hill, for example, is almost certain to be traded because of his contract status (free agent-to-be on a losing team). Others, though, are more up in the air–and that is the position […]
Jean Segura’s New Approach in Arizona
Throughout this offseason, I was a proponent of trading Jean Segura. I saw a shortstop who was getting steadily worse and whose value was being propped up by stellar defensive ratings that would only be declining. The Brewers presumably saw something similar, as they did eventually make the decision to trade him. This was an […]
Aaron Hill’s Trade Prospects
I will be the first to admit that I figured Aaron Hill was a salary throw-in when he arrived from Arizona in the offseason Jean Segura trade. Segura was a league-average shortstop, and that type of player has legitimate value, but the return of Isan Diaz and Chase Anderson seemed sufficient. Arizona, who had previously […]
Breaking Down Jimmy Nelson’s Disappointing Season
Jimmy Nelson has had a rough overall 2016. His 112 cFIP and 5.08 DRA are the worst marks of his young career, and he has not taken the expected step forward this year. PECOTA’s pre-season 50th-percentile projection had Nelson as a 2.6 WARP pitcher, with a 4.14 DRA. He started off decently (six earned runs […]
The Relative Value of Ryan Braun’s Contract
When Ryan Braun signed his contract extension in April 2011, it was prohibitively large. Braun, after all, had already signed a seven-year contract in 2008, so this deal wasn’t even going to kick in until after the 2015 season. And even though Braun was only entering his age-27 season, he was certainly no sure bet […]